It is reported that in the next month or more, the National Energy Administration will focus on accelerating the introduction of relevant policies for the photovoltaic industry in 2019 to provide guarantee for the stable development of the market.
On November 2nd, at the time of the Wuxi New Energy Exhibition, when the friends of the PV circle met at the exhibition, the topic of sitting down and talking mainly focused on how the enterprise will transform and develop，how to find new opportunity, how to hold the group to warm up, and survive the industry winter in the post-5.31 policy era.
At noon, there is news that the National Energy Administration is holding a symposium on the mid-term evaluation results of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The participants include the energy authorities, the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, and the water and electricity conservancy. Research institutes such as the Planning and Design Institute and China’s photovoltaic industry associations and other industry associations and power grid companies and more than a dozen photovoltaic companies. In light of the statement made by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the private enterprise symposium on the new energy industry, it is expected that there will be good news from the industry.
Sure enough, in the evening, the industry-related media exposed the main spirit of the symposium. The main leaders of the New Energy Division raised five points at the meeting:
1. Photovoltaic is a clean energy source supported by the state. It will be more supportive in the future and will never change.
2. It is clear that PV will continue to have subsidy support, while ensuring the scale; before 2022, subsidies will be gradually introduced, and the process of parity online will not be promoted across the board. Before actually entering the comprehensive “subsidy”, the National Energy Administration will still guarantee a certain amount of subsidy installed capacity every year and promote the further decline of subsidy intensity.
3. The Energy Bureau is making adjustments to the 13th Five-Year Plan to significantly increase the goal of PV construction. “The target of 210GW is also a bit low.” The photovoltaic installation target of China’s solar energy development “13th Five-Year Plan” is expected to be adjusted to more than 250GW, or even 270GW.
4. Speed up the introduction of next year’s policy and stabilize market expectations. It is reported that in the next month or more, the National Energy Administration will focus on accelerating the introduction of relevant policies for the photovoltaic industry in 2019 to provide guarantee for the stable development of the market.
5. Approved households with separate scale management, separated from industrial and commercial distribution, will further guide and support the orderly development of household distributed photovoltaics.
Is the spring of photovoltaics really coming back?
As a practitioner in the photovoltaic industry, I believe that everyone in their hearts is very much expected, after this symposium, the industry can sweep away the past haze and return to the previous prosperity. However, there are still many calm industry experts who have put forward another point of view and carefully express their views on the future.
The dean of the China Institute of Energy Economics wrote that the “531” really caused two cruel reality of PV people’s heart-breaking, and did not change because of “112”!
A cruel reality is the serious shortage of renewable energy subsidies. At the time of “531”, it was clearly owed 120 billion yuan. After the “531”, more than 20 GW of photovoltaic power plants were added. Some analysts said that only “the total renewable energy price subsidy demand in 2017 is about 125 billion yuan.” Wang Shujuan of Zhihui Photovoltaic analyzed that in the case of “renewable subsidies for renewable energy projects in 2020 (subsidies only subsidized 2019)… the cumulative gap of subsidies will reach more than 500 billion yuan, and it is expected that it will be comprehensive after 2033. Solve the problem of subsidy arrears left over from history.” If the country cannot raise the “renewable energy surcharge” or cannot allocate the PV subsidy separately, the “112” will inevitably have limited effect.
Another cruel reality is that the market-oriented environment for achieving PV-level price online is far from being formed. For “531”, Xiao Xiaoyu once said: “God closes a door, but opens a window to open the window of the market.” The decline in the subsidy policy and the rising role of the market are both the two sides of the seesaw that realizes the price level of photovoltaic emission, and the common cognition and appeal of all rational PV people. Fortunately, after the “531” subsidy policy vacuum period, PV people have built more than 20 GW photovoltaic power plants, including many unsubsidized power plants invested by enterprises. Therefore, what “112” needs to do is to accelerate the improvement of the market environment for PV-level price online.
What is the future direction of the photovoltaic industry?
A careful review of the five statements made by the main leaders of the National Energy Administration at the exchange meeting: In fact, we can easily find that the five contents only give a general plan for the development of the industry, more like the country gives confidence to the photovoltaic industry. Only part of it may bring some influence to the domestic PV industry in the short term.
For example, the second article: Before 2022, subsidies will be gradually introduced, and the process of cheap Internet access will not be promoted across the board. Before actually entering the comprehensive “subsidy”, the National Energy Administration will still guarantee a certain amount of subsidy installed capacity every year and promote the further decline of subsidy intensity. Considering that the household electricity PV has a low level of electricity, after the subsidy is reduced, the return on investment will be lower than that of the industrial and commercial projects, and the subsidy will be tilted to the household with a high probability.
However, due to the undecided reduction in subsidies in the future, it is more like a “strong shot” for the industry to stimulate the confidence of the entire industry in the future.
Looking at the third article, “the target of 210GW is also a bit low.” The photovoltaic installation target of China’s solar energy development “13th Five-Year Plan” is expected to be adjusted to more than 250GW, or even 270GW.
At present, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is 164.7GW, and will approach or exceed 170GW by the end of 2018. If we assume that according to the most optimistic installation target of 270GW in 2020, there will still be 100GW increments in 2019 and 2020, with an average annual installed capacity of about 50GW.
It should be noted that in 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 53.06GW. That is to say, even if the future “13th Five-Year Plan” is adjusted to the most optimistic 270GW, even the new installed capacity of 50GW per year will not reach the peak of the peak of the photovoltaic industry in 2017. But what if the final installed capacity of the 13th Five-Year Plan is 240GW or less?
In the past two years, the photovoltaic industry giants have been blindly expanding their production areas, and the newly added capacity in the industry has increased dramatically. Even taking into account the increase in the size of the international PV market in the next few years, China has lost a huge increase in China’s largest installed capacity. The problem of overcapacity in PV companies will become increasingly significant, and small and medium-sized players in the industry face reshuffle.
Considering the gap in the renewable energy fund that has been analyzed above, there are already many photovoltaic power plants held by PV companies, which are in arrears of subsidies of several hundred million yuan and billions of yuan. If the problem of subsidy arrears is not effectively resolved in the next few years, it will greatly affect the profit and cash flow of these PV companies, even the normal production and operation of enterprises.
From the perspective of the industry’s environment, in the case of insufficient subsidy funds, if large-scale installed capacity is to be maintained in the future, enterprises will be forced to develop more unsubsidized photovoltaic projects, and a high-quality roof will emerge in the future. Battle”.
The good news is that the Energy Bureau has clearly stated that it will accelerate the introduction of next year’s policy in November to stabilize market expectations. In addition, it is undoubtedly a very worthwhile thing to recognize the single-scale management of household indicators in the next year, for many struggling household PV dealers.
However, what is the household indicator for next year? Whether the household indicators will be built first and foremost like Zhejiang Province, giving priority to power plants that have not been subsidized before, and how many scale indicators remain at that time, everything is unknown!
Fortunately, today’s entire photovoltaic sector stocks are red, but it reflects the financial capital and began to regain confidence in the photovoltaic industry.